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Weekly Market Focus - 14 October 2019

Weekly Focus                                          14 October 2019

Weakening economic data forces a partial US China trade deal
 

 

All major indices ended last week higher following positive news of a trade deal between the US and China. Gains in the US were broad based and included the Russell 2000. Cyclical sectors such as materials, industrials and technology benefitted most while defensive sectors such as utilities lagged after rising bond yields decreased their appeal to investors.

 

After 18 months of conflict, the US and China reached a partial deal under which the former will refrain from implementing new tariffs which were scheduled for this week. China for its part, would resume buying farm products, make concessions on intellectual property, financial services and the currency market. While this removes some tail risk for financial markets in the sense that it will avoid a full blown out trade war, it is unlikely to be a game changer for global growth as tariff hikes planned by the US for December have not been addressed and signature of the current agreement will take a month or so during which further hurdles might emerge.   

 

In Europe, the export heavy DAX benefitted from further positive news on Brexit following discussions between the Prime Ministers of England and Ireland. However in this case too, there are obstacles as the EU is less upbeat than the Irish on an agreement and obtaining parliamentary approval will be a challenge. The base case scenario remains an extension of the October 31 deadlines which should suit all parties in the short term.   

Meanwhile soft global growth represents a headwind for broad-based equity price appreciation and the focus for alpha generation will depend on bottom-up investing for the coming quarters.

 

 

Value

1 week

Year to date

Equity Indices

 

 

 

S&P500

2,970

1.07%

18.49%

S. Africa 40

5,510

0.81%

4.97%

Stoxx50

3,547

2.21%

18.21%

FTSE100

7,199

0.05%

7.03%

DAX

12,448

2.93%

17.93%

CAC40

5,630

1.99%

19.04%

SMI Index

9,944

0.33%

18.01%

FTSE MIB

22,073

1.97%

20.49%

Shanghai Comp

3,008

3.53%

20.61%

BSE Sensex

38,214

1.82%

5.95%

Nikkei

21,799

1.98%

8.91%

Major currencies

 

 

 

USDZAR

14.78

-2.67%

2.89%

EURUSD

1.10

0.50%

-3.87%

GBPUSD

1.26

2.33%

-1.42%

USDCHF

1.00

0.19%

1.54%

EURCHF

1.10

0.69%

-2.41%

USDJPY

108.31

0.96%

-1.14%

EURGBP

0.88

-1.78%

-2.49%

USDAUD

1.48

-0.33%

4.40%

Dollar Index

98

-0.47%

2.58%

 Commodities 

 

 

 

Brent

59.09

1.37%

9.94%

WTI Oil

53.30

1.18%

17.53%

Copper

2.61

1.13%

-1.51%

Platinum

901.70

2.25%

12.51%

Sugar

12.55

0.40%

4.49%

Corn

396.50

2.45%

5.73%

Gold

1,494.85

-0.66%

13.86%

 Sovereign Yields

 

 

 

US10Y

1.73

10.80%

-35.44%

UK10Y

132.66

-1.58%

7.68%

Germany10Y

-0.47

-19.13%

-289.02%

 Deposit rates with selected banks

 

Investec Bank 32 days CCM – USD 1.20%

 

     

Contact us: Durban +27 (0) 31 566 3365 | CPT +27 ( 0 ) 21 851 0920 | JHB +27 ( 0 ) 11 017 7230 | Email: enquiries@pegasus-wm.com

Disclaimer: The research report has been prepared for information purposes and does not constitute an offer. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and the company accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this report

 

 



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