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Weekly Market Focus - 08 April 2019

Markets

WEEKLY FOCUS: Analysts predict the S&P500 index will rise in the next 12 months              08 April 2019
 

 

Major indices continued to rise over the past week as positive news on the US China trade deal boosted risk appetite. The Chinese economic recovery is gaining some traction this year after manufacturing data showed a rebound and commodity prices picked up. Export data for March should also show an improvement after the drop in February which was probably on account of the Lunar festival. The producer price index data released this week is the preferred benchmark of the central bank for measuring inflation and should indicate a slightly tick up. If the current trend continues, it will be a tailwind for the EU where economic data has been soft lately.

 

The industrial production data of the EU for March will be scrutinized to see if they fall in line with PMIs or continue the rebound seen in January. In Germany the final March inflation data should confirm a year on year slowdown. The factory orders output for the US will also be scrutinized for any signs of contagion following the weak German data of February. In the UK, the ongoing Brexit uncertainty should result in an extension which suits everyone at this stage.

 

Corporations seem to be doing well in spite of the mixed economic data and analysts expect that the level of the S&P500 index will be 7.5% higher in twelve months’ time. Their computation is based on the forecast of individual companies which they aggregate and compare against the index level of the past week. From a sector index perspective Energy, Healthcare, Communication services and Financials are predicted to generate gains above 10% in the next twelve months. (detailed sector level chart above)

 

 

Value

Week

YTD

Equity Indices

 

 

 

S&P500

2,893

2.06%

16.37%

S. Africa

3,503

3.25%

7.87%

Euro Stoxx50

3,447

2.85%

14.86%

FTSE100

7,447

2.30%

10.59%

DAX

12,010

4.20%

13.74%

CAC40

5,476

2.35%

17.04%

Swiss Mkt.

9,541

0.66%

13.19%

FTSE MIB

21,759

2.22%

18.74%

Shanghai Comp.

3,247

5.04%

30.18%

BSE Sensex

38,862

0.49%

7.72%

Nikkei

21,808

2.84%

8.96%

Major currencies

 

 

 

USDZAR

14.10

-2.77%

-2.31%

EURUSD

1.12

-0.02%

-1.94%

GBPUSD

1.30

0.03%

2.60%

USDCHF

1.00

0.48%

1.61%

EURCHF

1.12

0.46%

-0.43%

USDJPY

111.73

0.78%

1.31%

EURGBP

0.86

-0.06%

-4.46%

USDAUD

1.41

-0.12%

-0.87%

Dollar Index

97.00

0.16%

1.08%

Commodities 

 

 

 

Brent

70.34

2.85%

34.75%

WTI Oil

63.08

4.89%

39.16%

Copper

2.89

-1.47%

7.72%

Aluminium

1,882.75

-1.20%

1.98%

Platinum

905.65

6.17%

14.60%

Sugar

12.76

1.84%

2.99%

Corn

362.50

1.68%

-3.46%

Coffee

93.20

-1.38%

-7.68%

Gold

1,290.40

-0.20%

0.09%

Cotton

78.36

1.01%

8.43%

Sovereign Yields

 

 

 

US10Y

2.50

0.09

(0.22)

UK10Y

1.12

0.12

(0.15)

Germany10Y

0.01

0.08

(0.23)

 

Contact us: Durban +27 (0) 31 566 3365 | CPT +27 ( 0 ) 21 851 0920 | JHB +27 ( 0 ) 11 017 7230 | Email: enquiries@pegasus-wm.com

Disclaimer: The research report has been prepared for information purposes and does not constitute an offer. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and the company accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this report

 

 



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