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Weekly Market Focus 10 September 2018

Markets

WEEKLY FOCUS – There is no substitute for data analysis                                       10 September 2018

 

As we approach the end of the third quarter of the year, speculations abound on the health of economic blocs and the direction of equity indices. While financial media commentary provides some valuable insight, it is evident that there is no substitute for data analysis.

 

In the US, CPI data, due to be released on Thursday, should maintain its trend of growing 2.4% year on year. We are still in wait and watch mode for more insight into whether the data series will break above the trend line and force the FED to act more decisively, the more so that they have indicated they are happy with current levels as the data has been too low for too long. The retail sales data will also be scrutinized for further acceleration or at least to confirm that the positive trend seen in consumer confidence translates to more personal consumption. On a comparative basis, the US economy remains the global driver of growth.  

 

As the possibility of a trade war between the EU and the US faded, the ZEW economic sentiment rebounded in July. Economic expectations for Germany to be released on Tuesday will shed light on whether the data series has bottomed and a rebound is on the cards. Also the Euro area wage growth data released on Friday should indicate another acceleration to reach 2.2% year on year for Q2 boosted principally by Germany. The ECB meets this week and is unlikely to make any significant policy announcement bar a review of staff projections for growth in 2019 and 2020 which should be revised marginally lower.

 

In China, important data releases on retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment will be monitored. The decline in GDP this year was expected but the trade war forced monetary and fiscal easing. Hence data analysis will be important to ascertain whether growth remains steady and if not whether the easing is sustainable.

 

 

Value

Week

YTD

Equity Indices

 

 

 

S&P500

2,872

-1.03%

7.41%

S. Africa

3,424

-3.09%

-9.69%

FTSE100

7,278

-2.08%

-5.33%

DAX

11,960

-3.27%

-7.42%

CAC40

5,252

-2.86%

-1.14%

Swiss Mkt.

8,843

-1.45%

-4.76%

FTSE MIB

20,448

0.88%

-6.43%

Shanghai Comp

2,702

-0.84%

-18.29%

BSE Sensex

38,390

-0.66%

12.72%

Nikkei

22,313

-2.38%

-1.99%

Major currencies

 

 

 

USDZAR

15.24

3.74%

23.15%

EURUSD

1.16

-0.41%

-3.71%

GBPUSD

1.29

-0.30%

-4.37%

USDCHF

0.97

0.05%

-0.52%

EURCHF

1.12

-0.37%

-4.20%

USDJPY

111.08

0.04%

-1.43%

EURGBP

0.89

-0.12%

0.70%

USDAUD

1.41

1.25%

9.78%

Dollar Index

95.33

0.26%

3.81%

 Commodities 

 

 

 

Brent

 76.83

-0.76%

14.89%

WTI Oil

67.75

-2.94%

12.13%

Copper

2.60

-1.74%

-20.64%

Aluminum

2,060.25

-3.79%

-9.46%

Platinum

781.90

-0.75%

-16.34%

Sugar

11.01

3.87%

-27.37%

Corn

354.25

0.93%

1.00%

Coffee

102.50

1.02%

-18.78%

Gold

1,193.60

-0.56%

-8.84%

Cotton

 82.00

-0.35%

4.50%

 Sovereign Yields

 

 

 

US10Y

2.94

0.08

0.53

UK10Y

1.46

0.03

0.27

Germany10Y

0.39

0.06

(0.03)

Contact: DBN +27 ( 0 ) 31 566 3365 | CPT +27 ( 0 ) 21 851 0920 | JHB +27 ( 0 ) 11 017 7230 | Email:enquiries@pegasuswm.com
Disclaimer: The research report has been prepared for information purposes and does not constitute an offer. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and the company accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this report
 

 



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