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Weekly Commentary -25 August 2021

published: 25 Aug
2021-08-25 14:34:22

Weekly Market Commentary

 

Cyclical equities and commodities struggled last week as investors price in poorer consumer confidence and rising COVID-19 cases

 

Equities rallied on Friday, helping contain last week’s equity selloff to less than -1% for the US index. European indices, with their economically sensitive tilt, underperformed. Commodities also fell, with copper and oil both seeing weakness after strong runs. This fall was echoed in cyclical equities impacted by concerns over the Delta variant and consumer confidence.

 

This week, all eyes are on the Jackson Hole symposium, during which US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell may allude to the tapering timetable

 

The year’s most important central bank symposium takes place this week and all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell and his timeline to withdraw some of the pandemic monetary stimulus. It will be a big fortnight for Powell, as Biden is due to announce whether he will be recommended to the Senate as Fed Chair when his term ends in February. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is said to have recommended Powell continues in the role in the interests of continuity, as well as his role during the pandemic. Jackson Hole is now taking place virtually rather than face-to-face, which reflects the more difficult Delta variant backdrop in the US. In this context, the market is expecting Powell to avoid any strong suggestions that there will be a tapering announcement at the September meeting, and is more likely to keep the wording vague. Importantly, ahead of any tapering announcement, the Fed has been keen to separate a reduction in quantitative easing and any decision to raise rates, all signs that any removal of support will be very gradual.

 

Rising COVID-19 cases have dampened economic growth expectations globally, as Australia suggests its zero-COVID-19 strategy is unlikely to remain

 

Last week’s dip came amidst a gloomier outlook for consumer confidence and rising global COVID-19 cases. The US situation has been deteriorating, despite the high levels of vaccinations, as the country hit 1,000 daily deaths for the first time since March[1]. Australia and New Zealand have seen further momentum in case growth suggesting that their zero-COVID-19 strategy will struggle to work with the more infectious Delta variant. Indeed, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that it was highly unlikely that the country could return to a zero-COVID-19 backdrop amidst a concerted push to improve vaccination rates in the country.

While equities still remain near all-time highs on an index level, the cyclical sell-off last week tells the story of dampened economic growth expectations being priced into economically sensitive sectors. With consumer data suggesting soft demand, this also pushes back against expectations of sustained inflationary pressures and by extension the need for higher interest rates.

 

 

1 Bloomberg, 22 August 2021 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-22/u-s-weekly-cases-surge-fda-warns-on-animal-drug-virus-update?sref=CZCP1vND)

 

The Week In Numbers

 

 

 


Weekly Commentary - 18 August 2021

published: 18 Aug
2021-08-18 15:49:20
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Weekly Commentary 12 August 2021

published: 12 Aug
2021-08-12 14:45:40
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Weekly Commentary 04 August 2021

published: 04 Aug
2021-08-04 10:52:35
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Weekly Commentary - 27 July 2021

published: 03 Aug
2021-08-03 09:59:46
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20 July 2021 - Weekly Market Commentary

published: 20 Jul
2021-07-20 15:02:31
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Weekly Commentary - 13 July 2021

published: 13 Jul
2021-07-13 15:25:58
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01 July 2021- Weekly Commentary

published: 01 Jul
2021-07-01 09:10:12
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Weekly Commentary 23 June 2021

published: 23 Jun
2021-06-23 10:27:25
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Weekly Commentary 15 June 2021

published: 15 Jun
2021-06-15 14:46:02
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Weekly Commentary 09 June 2021

published: 09 Jun
2021-06-09 08:11:48
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Weekly commentary 03 June 2021

published: 03 Jun
2021-06-03 16:16:44
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Weekly commentary 19 May 2021

published: 19 May
2021-05-19 12:36:49
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Weekly Commentary 10 May 2021

published: 10 May
2021-05-10 09:54:16
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Weekly commentary 21 April 2021

published: 21 Apr
2021-04-21 09:23:49
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Weekly commentary - 14 April 2021

published: 13 Apr
2021-04-13 14:17:20
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Weekly Commentary - 25 March 2021

published: 25 Mar
2021-03-25 10:07:29
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Weekly Commentary 18 March 2021

published: 18 Mar
2021-03-18 12:02:15
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Weekly Commentary - 12 March 2021

published: 12 Mar
2021-03-12 10:29:06
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Weekly Commentary - 03 March 2021

published: 05 Mar
2021-03-05 08:48:01
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Weekly Commentary - 24 February 2021

published: 24 Feb
2021-02-24 08:31:42
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Weekly Commentary - 18 February 2021

published: 18 Feb
2021-02-18 15:09:51
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Weekly Commentary - 11 February 2021

published: 16 Feb
2021-02-16 08:27:07
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Weekly Commentary - 03 February 2021

published: 03 Feb
2021-02-03 15:09:10
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Weekly Focus - 29 June 2020

published: 2020-06-30
2020-06-30 20:52:10
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Weekly Focus - 22 June 2020

published: 2020-06-25
2020-06-25 07:32:48
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Weekly Focus - 15 June 2020

published: 2020-06-19
2020-06-19 23:16:48
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Weekly Focus - 08 June 2020

published: 2020-06-11
2020-06-11 15:38:26
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Weekly Focus - 25 May 2020

published: 2020-05-27
2020-05-27 08:01:14
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Weekly Focus - 18 May 2020

published: 2020-05-20
2020-05-20 22:16:44
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Weekly Focus - 12 May 2020

published: 2020-05-14
2020-05-14 22:54:18
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Weekly Focus - 04 May 2020

published: 2020-05-06
2020-05-06 07:53:00
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Weekly Focus - 27 April 2020

published: 2020-04-29
2020-04-29 23:53:19
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published: 2020-04-21
2020-04-21 09:02:15
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Weekly Focus - 13 April 2020

published: 2020-04-15
2020-04-15 08:36:25
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Weekly Focus - 06 April 2020

published: 2020-04-07
2020-04-07 08:49:04
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Weekly Focus - 30 March 2020

published: 2020-03-31
2020-03-31 11:29:38
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Weekly Focus - 16 March 2020

published: 2020-03-19
2020-03-19 09:14:36
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Weekly Focus - 24 February 2020

published: 2020-02-27
2020-02-27 16:25:54
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Weekly Focus - 17 February 2020

published: 2020-02-10
2020-02-10 23:28:49
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Weekly Focus - 03 February 2020

published: 2020-02-06
2020-02-06 11:32:18
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Weekly Focus - 27 January 2020

published: 2020-01-28
2020-01-28 23:49:42
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Weekly Focus - 13 January 2020

published: 2020-01-15
2020-01-15 10:02:38
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Weekly Focus - 09 December 2019

published: 2019-12-11
2019-12-11 22:04:33
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Weekly Focus - 02 December 2019

published: 2019-12-05
2019-12-05 11:56:44
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Weekly Focus - 25 November 2019

published: 2019-11-29
2019-11-29 09:52:21
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Weekly Focus - 18 November 2019

published: 2019-11-19
2019-11-19 10:56:30
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Weekly Market Focus - 28 October 2019

published: 2019-11-01
2019-11-01 14:23:45
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Weekly Market Focus - 21 October 2019

published: 2019-10-24
2019-10-24 11:26:00
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Weekly Market Focus - 14 October 2019

published: 2019-10-15
2019-10-15 09:06:56
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Weekly Market Focus - 30 September 2019

published: 2019-10-03
2019-10-03 11:27:47
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Weekly Market Focus - 23 September 2019

published: 2019-09-25
2019-09-25 16:09:51
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Weekly Market Focus - 10 September 2019

published: 2019-09-13
2019-09-13 08:21:10
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Weekly Market Focus - 02 September 2019

published: 2019-09-03
2019-09-03 12:32:32
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Weekly Market Focus - 26 August 2019

published: 2019-08-27
2019-08-27 14:40:23
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Weekly Market Focus - 19 August 2019

published: 2019-08-20
2019-08-20 15:33:16
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Weekly Market Focus - 05 August 2019

published: 2019-08-06
2019-08-06 08:27:46
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Weekly Market Focus - 29 July 2019

published: 2019-07-31
2019-07-31 16:42:36
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Weekly Market Focus - 22 July 2019

published: 2019-07-23
2019-07-23 08:35:15
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Weekly Market Focus - 15 July 2019

published: 2019-07-16
2019-07-16 15:04:12
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Weekly Market Focus - 01 July 2019

published: 2019-07-02
2019-07-02 13:07:03
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Weekly Market Focus - 24 June 2019

published: 2019-06-28
2019-06-28 08:32:59
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Weekly Market Focus - 17 June 2019

published: 2019-06-18
2019-06-18 09:04:59
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Weekly Market Focus - 10 June 2019

published: 2019-06-11
2019-06-11 21:18:39
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Weekly Market Focus - 28 May 2019

published: 2019-05-28
2019-05-28 08:20:55
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Weekly Market Focus - 20 May 2019

published: 2019-05-22
2019-05-22 16:01:15
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Weekly Market Focus - 13 May 2019

published: 2019-05-14
2019-05-14 08:02:13
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Weekly Market Focus - 22 April 2019

published: 2019-04-23
2019-04-23 16:00:54
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Weekly Market Focus - 08 April 2019

published: 2019-04-09
2019-04-09 12:58:37
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Weekly Market Focus - 25 March 2019

published: 2019-03-26
2019-03-26 15:40:52
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Weekly Market Focus - 18 March 2019

published: 2019-03-22
2019-03-22 08:29:23
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Weekly Market Focus - 11 March 2019

published: 2019-03-14
2019-03-14 08:15:56
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Weekly Market Focus - 05 March 2019

published: 2019-03-05
2019-03-05 16:19:20
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Weekly Market Focus - 25 February 2019

published: 2019-02-26
2019-02-26 09:20:13
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Budget Speech 2019

published: 2019-02-21
2019-02-21 08:06:50
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Weekly Market Focus - 18 February 2019

published: 2019-02-19
2019-02-19 08:41:56
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Weekly Market Focus - 11 February 2019

published: 2019-02-12
2019-02-12 21:39:10
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Weekly Market Focus - 04 February 2019

published: 2019-02-05
2019-02-05 14:23:41
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Weekly Market Focus - 28 January 2019

published: 2019-01-28
2019-01-28 21:48:43
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Weekly Market Focus 14 January 2019

published: 2019-01-15
2019-01-15 08:19:15
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Weekly Market Focus 10 December 2018

published: 2018-12-13
2018-12-13 22:34:27
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Weekly Market Focus 03 December 2018

published: 2018-12-04
2018-12-04 15:21:39
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Weekly Market Focus 26 November 2018

published: 2018-11-26
2018-11-26 23:05:52
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Weekly Market Focus 19 November 2018

published: 2018-11-20
2018-11-20 09:10:05
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Weekly Market Focus 12 November 2018

published: 2018-11-13
2018-11-13 13:57:35
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Weekly Market Focus 05 November 2018

published: 2018-11-07
2018-11-07 08:33:44
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Weekly Market Focus 29 October 2018

published: 2018-10-30
2018-10-30 12:11:54
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Weekly Market Focus 22 October 2018

published: 2018-10-23
2018-10-23 08:21:03
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Weekly Market Focus 15 October 2018

published: 2018-10-17
2018-10-17 08:59:41
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Weekly Market Focus 08 October 2018

published: 2018-10-09
2018-10-09 22:01:07
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Weekly Market Focus 01 October 2018

published: 2018-10-01
2018-10-01 22:40:04
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Weekly Market Focus 17 September 2018

published: 2018-09-18
2018-09-18 08:18:38
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Weekly Market Focus 10 September 2018

published: 2018-09-11
2018-09-11 08:49:13
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Weekly Market Focus 27 August 2018

published: 2018-08-27
2018-08-27 09:28:51
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Weekly Market Focus 20 August 2018

published: 2018-08-22
2018-08-22 09:35:39
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Weekly Market Focus 13 August 2018

published: 2018-08-14
2018-08-14 09:07:20
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Weekly Market Focus 06 August 2018

published: 2018-08-07
2018-08-07 09:22:28
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Weekly Market Focus 30 July 2018

published: 2018-07-31
2018-07-31 10:44:05
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Weekly Market Focus 23 July 2018

published: 2018-07-24
2018-07-24 09:40:33
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Weekly Market Focus 16 July 2018

published: 2018-07-17
2018-07-17 08:59:17
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Weekly Market Focus 09 July 2018

published: 2018-07-09
2018-07-09 19:42:36
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Weekly Market Focus 02 July 2018

published: 2018-07-03
2018-07-03 10:34:29
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Budget Speech 2018/19 Tax Year Summary

published: 2018-02-22
2018-02-22 07:48:31
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2018 - A brave new world

published: 2018-01-29
2018-01-29 07:45:40
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ANC Elective Conference results - what to expect next

published: 2017-12-19
2017-12-19 13:06:31
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Market Review of 2nd quarter 2017

published: 2017-07-13
2017-07-13 15:59:30
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Stay invested despite downgrades, say analysts

published: 2017-04-25
2017-04-25 11:15:25
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2017/2018 Budget

published: 2017-02-23
2017-02-23 17:28:20
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Have you considered topping up your RA before the end of the tax year.

published: 2017-02-14
2017-02-14 08:47:13
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2016: A year of ‘surprise and rapid rotation’

published: 2017-01-17
2017-01-17 15:39:11
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Budget 2016: What you need to know

published: 2016-02-25
2016-02-25 14:48:57
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Retirement Reform Update

published: 2016-01-14
2016-01-14 16:35:46
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Pegasus re-brands itself

published: 2015-03-12
2015-03-12 10:06:26
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Tax Advantages of RA’s – Retirement Annuities

published: 2015-01-26
2015-01-26 14:01:53
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What is Regulation 28

published: 2015-01-26
2015-01-26 13:59:52
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Structured Investment Products ~ Offering Growth & Capital Protection

published: 2014-05-06
2014-05-06 16:26:08
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Let Us Know How We're Doing

published: 2014-04-15
2014-04-15 16:29:45
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Budget Highlights

published: 2014-02-27
2014-02-27 11:43:12
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The FUNDamentals of Tax Efficiency

published: 2014-02-04
2014-02-04 14:58:06
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Keith O'Reilly joins Pegasus JHB

published: 2013-09-25
2013-09-25 16:30:57
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The low-down on the FED’s Quantitative Easing (QE) Plan

published: 2013-09-10
2013-09-10 16:15:57
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New Johannesburg Offices Open

published: 2013-07-11
2013-07-11 15:44:54
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Financial Services and Retirement Reform

published: 2013-03-07
2013-03-07 11:04:18
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Commentary on the budget speech

published: 2013-02-28
2013-02-28 15:41:50
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A tax-efficient way to save for retirement

published: 2013-01-08
2013-01-08 11:38:25
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