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Weekly Focus - 13 January 2020

published: 15 Jan
2020-01-15 10:02:38

Weekly Focus                                             13 January 2020

Reduced geopolitical risks push stocks higher
 

Major indices rose during the past week as tensions between the US and Iran eased after risks of an armed conflict were dissipated. Large capitalisation indices gained the most and the Nasdaq reached new highs. The technology sector was boosted by a rise in the share price of Apple following reports of better than estimated sales of iPhones in China. The share price of Salesforce.com, the cloud software firm also spiked and supported the technology segment. On the other hand, a drop in the price of oil negatively affected energy sector companies.

 

On the macroeconomic data side there were encouraging signs as IHS Markit’s gauge of service sector activity reached a 5 month high (chart above) and data from the ISM indicated a similar trend. Employment data was also positive as job gains in December were the highest since April 2019 according to data released by ADP. The yield on the 10 year US treasuries was at an appreciable 1.84 mark. 

 

European indices also ended higher during the week led by the Stoxx50 and the German DAX was up sharply after geopolitical tensions eased. Data from IHS Markit on composite index for the Eurozone inched up to an encouraging 50.9 and is an indication that the services sector is offsetting weakness in the manufacturing sector. On the inflation front, the year on year CPI data was a modest 1.3%, well below the ECB’s target rate of 2%. Overall the macroeconomic data remains weaker compared to the US as no political party has a clear majority to engage in structural reforms in either Germany, Spain or Italy. And in France, public protests represent an impediment to reforms.

 

In China, it was announced that Vice Premier Lui would lead a delegation to the US to sign ‘Phase 1’ of the trade deal. This will represent a significant de-escalation of tensions on the trade front is positive for risk sentiment.

 

 

Value

1 week

YTD

Equity Indices

 

 

 

S&P500

3,265

0.59%

1.07%

S. Africa 40

5,718

0.00%

0.00%

Stoxx50

3,790

0.99%

1.18%

FTSE100

7,588

0.17%

0.60%

DAX

13,483

2.71%

1.77%

CAC40

6,037

0.39%

0.99%

SMI Index

10,639

-0.24%

0.21%

FTSE MIB

24,021

1.87%

2.19%

Shanghai Comp

3,116

1.04%

2.15%

BSE Sensex

41,821

2.81%

1.37%

Nikkei

23,851

2.78%

0.82%

Major currencies

 

 

 

USDZAR

14.33

0.83%

2.36%

EURUSD

1.11

-0.64%

-0.79%

GBPUSD

1.30

-1.28%

-1.97%

USDCHF

0.97

0.56%

0.58%

EURCHF

1.08

-0.10%

-0.21%

USDJPY

109.64

1.15%

0.93%

EURGBP

0.86

0.62%

1.27%

USDAUD

1.45

0.35%

1.52%

Dollar Index

97

0.82%

1.12%

 Commodities 

 

 

 

Brent

 64.97

-5.63%

-1.47%

WTI Oil

59.07

-6.57%

-3.19%

Copper

  2.82

1.15%

0.89%

Platinum

976.35

0.70%

0.43%

Sugar

14.09

2.62%

4.99%

Corn

387.38

0.68%

-0.10%

Gold

1,553.55

-0.99%

1.98%

 Sovereign Yields

 

 

 

US10Y

1.84

1.55%

-4.27%

UK10Y

131.86

-0.07%

0.37%

Germany10Y

-0.23

-19.58%

22.99%

 Deposit rates with selected banks

 

Investec Bank 32 days CCM - USD 1.20%

 

 

 
Contact us: Durban +27 (0) 31 566 3365 | CPT +27 ( 0 ) 21 851 0920 | JHB +27 ( 0 ) 11 017 7230 | Email: enquiries@pegasus-wm.com
Disclaimer: The research report has been prepared for information purposes and does not constitute an offer. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and the company accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this report
 

 


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